Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ralph Norman win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0aef11295f1aecb1a81abd3939ddf665bca1482377e905816bebbd3fa983cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 7c | 891.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 16c | 814.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 801.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 699.1$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed Yes | 6c | 676.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 5c | 663.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 420.1$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 375$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 5c | 299.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +11.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 292$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 13c | 220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 146.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…dff3backed Yes | 13c | 142.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 37c | 45.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ralph Norman win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Lexington County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.