Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f35f538b9f1ddff64bec4c8f668da112540bedfac1d8269db223474c3ca3078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 9c | 2,912$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.54 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 16c | 668$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 72c | 443$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 423.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 410.81$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Yes | 3c | 344.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 185.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 14c | 155.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked Yes | 25c | 144.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 27c | 133.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 97.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 28c | 90.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 75c | 75.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 73c | 74.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…af81backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 56.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe482…c597backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 27c | 41.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 75c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…fd45backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 74c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 72c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-23?this page
- Will D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?Yes won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.