Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9eedefe9a9cc258c291af827d51c43cb3ef74e54e61cd3f5ea4cce9679ac41c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,390$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,261.13 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 2,628$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.36 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,685$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.58 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 9c | 969.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.09 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 737.53$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.77 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 549.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 502.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.72 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 58c | 486.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6ca4backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f3dabacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 73c | 360.28$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.81 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 42c | 348.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 346.78$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.61 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 24c | 299.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.49 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 40c | 290$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 285.05$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.34 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…b1ffbacked Yes | 22c | 269.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 16c | 237$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 16c | 229.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.95 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 48c | 219.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…b3eabacked Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…f627backed Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…62dfbacked Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…1efbbacked Yes | 26c | 187.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 175$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 66c | 151.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Yes | 22c | 137.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…b54abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +623%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 123.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 74c | 119.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 9c | 118.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 75c | 118$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 107.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 54c | 102.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 100.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 95.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 73c | 88.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 74c | 84.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 77.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 54c | 60.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Yes | 20c | 57.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 76c | 53.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 51c | 44.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 28.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…7f96backed Yes | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-23?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.