Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f4db5512be62a4f7b0ae8710a818a7577a47d053c1588d9acb28e5ef8473d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Down | 47c | 1,100$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Down | 64c | 628.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…a3f2backed Up | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Down | 35c | 507.7$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 67c | 317.07$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Up | 55c | 261.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…6c73backed Up | 63c | 162.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 39c | 114.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked Down | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…c8a3backed Up | 50c | 95.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…33d4backed Up | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…23f6backed Down | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Down | 63c | 67.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…6880backed Up | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 22c | 52.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd9…a74fbacked Down | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6960…b9d4backed Up | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Down | 27c | 49.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Down | 59c | 43.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…ba60backed Down | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Up | 67c | 30.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbc…efb3backed Up | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.