Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f5419f61f3495ab8c45132690fb99b63aa2101db824f9d28a4d82e965588d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Arizona State Sun Devils, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,202 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 5,332$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.7 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 3,634$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.95 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 3,492$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.05 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 2,744$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 2,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…434ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 1,465$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 1,352$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 1,318$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…40b1backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefe…a0d2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 965.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…ad74backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 920$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 669.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…e56abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 16c | 665$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 609.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 572.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 536.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…190ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 470$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 379.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 321.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 258 | 29.5%76 W · 182 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 298.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 5c | 235.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 16c | 199.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 195.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 151.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 244 | 32%78 W · 166 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 149.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 16c | 129.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 28.3%65 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fa…7d1fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…9786backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d7…a5f9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 99.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclonesthis page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-10.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-11.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-12.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.