TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Arizona State Sun Devils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,206 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff81…44c9backed Iowa State Cyclones57c3,135$1,792 inWon+$1,343.437448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils43c1,643$703 inLost-$702.9512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils44c632.98$276 inLost-$275.932,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Arizona State Sun Devils43c400$173 inLost-$17337246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Iowa State Cyclones58c202.14$118 inWon+$84.585,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils45c187.58$84 inLost-$84.4111244.6%50 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Arizona State Sun Devils43c116.26$50 inLost-$49.9982846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arizona State Sun Devils41c109.5$45 inLost-$44.95,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Iowa State Cyclones59c108.57$64 inWon+$44.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Arizona State Sun Devils43c98.01$42 inLost-$42.1422950.7%116 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils45c66.37$30 inLost-$29.8758652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Arizona State Sun Devils43c50$22 inLost-$21.514461.8%89 W · 55 L+0.7wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Arizona State Sun Devils43c41.75$18 inLost-$17.9527650.7%140 W · 136 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils43c37.02$16 inLost-$15.9216243.8%71 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona State Sun Devils42c34.23$14 inLost-$14.3722047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Iowa State Cyclones60c32.85$20 inWon+$13.1430054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils42c27.76$12 inLost-$11.7530652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Arizona State Sun Devils44c27.04$12 inLost-$11.918439.1%72 W · 112 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.