Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f26998c0dc3555ce1e875483049860fcdfd6e376d81acd01e772705c62b2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,355 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc7e…08fdbacked Over | 55c | 3,600$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 47c | 3,360$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.13 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Under | 48c | 826.05$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.55 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae03…04aabacked Over | 52c | 793.01$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…7b49backed Over | 52c | 674.06$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…2ca0backed Over | 52c | 634.41$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 561.07$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 380.45$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.15 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 188.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Over | 54c | 105.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Under | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 52c | 34.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 52c | 30.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Under | 65c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 53c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5this page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-10.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-11.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-12.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.