Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f84210a10b5ac7a8a788cc6b95068d071e9eb8f92920c7e25a225192afcfa64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 47c | 880.56$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.61 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 543.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 441.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 27c | 338.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 232.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 12c | 154.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 78c | 149.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 26c | 131.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 117.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 110.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 42c | 103.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 49c | 102.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 35c | 98.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 98.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 65c | 91.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 38c | 80.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…610bbacked Yes | 21c | 72.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 45c | 66.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 65.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdff…b57fbacked Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…422ebacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…5516backed No | 26c | 60.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 25c | 55.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 52.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 32c | 50.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 35c | 50.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 48.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10c7…efa6backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 45.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…426fbacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 39.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…1774backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…22ecbacked Yes | 67c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 34c | 29.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…68afbacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 47c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 64c | 23.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 79c | 18.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 17.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 66c | 17.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.