Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5188159b37213458fea250831383dc3de174b30a138beaccc93756c3c7a8cb15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 36c | 881.66$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.4 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 6c | 383.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 335.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 278.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 12c | 266.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 11c | 250.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 11c | 207.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 12c | 194.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 191.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 66c | 175.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 8c | 165.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 159.12$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 50c | 139.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 34c | 99.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 40c | 97.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 17c | 92.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 25c | 91.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed Yes | 36c | 86.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 86.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 69c | 82.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 80.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc2…9762backed Yes | 32c | 77.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 75.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 32c | 74.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 68.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 63.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 62.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 67c | 60.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 52.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 49c | 52.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 50.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 47.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 32c | 43.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 39c | 42.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 48c | 41.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 41.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…cb90backed Yes | 37c | 40.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 35.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…20bfbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 26.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 64c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 26.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 65c | 25.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed No | 71c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 22.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 66c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 56c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 62c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 58c | 18.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 61c | 17.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.