Earnings · resolved market
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f936ab5f413b4dcce95895b5943f7396de43e0877c882e865a2d9cdc6020fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,789$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 6c | 1,830$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…13c8backed No | 9c | 960.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 3c | 891.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5d…8d58backed No | 12c | 826.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +451.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 699.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…11c5backed No | 10c | 698.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 447.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 7c | 429.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 8c | 425.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed No | 5c | 410.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…1633backed No | 6c | 359.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 4c | 346.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7382…15cabacked No | 5c | 321.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…8fd1backed No | 5c | 306.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -94%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 4c | 305.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 5c | 264.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 6c | 260.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked No | 14c | 253.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…700fbacked No | 5c | 204.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…8072backed No | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…d025backed No | 11c | 186.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 13c | 166.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bdaebacked No | 9c | 145.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 12c | 117.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.