Bundesliga · resolved market
Wolfsburg leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f98a03214731dcea176f9c62568106cbd56537710c076efdc156bc6cd6c624e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 64c | 496.56$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…5a5cbacked Yes | 35c | 422.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Yes | 35c | 402.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 296$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 64c | 282.05$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 65c | 158.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 65c | 155.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 65c | 146$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 35c | 139.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 56c | 77.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Yes | 35c | 77.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 74.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed No | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…1307backed No | 42c | 50.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked No | 43c | 32.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 66c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wolfsburg leading at halftime?this page
- Paderborn leading at halftime?No won
- Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.