Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f9a414838b1d0cc6f1d8ab244c590bf2b6a8e30f315e1dd4e954f344548b7d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Falcons | 48c | 1,018$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.27 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Team Falcons | 50c | 776$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Team Falcons | 48c | 743.71$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 537.21$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.7 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 491.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.62 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit | 64c | 375.66$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Falcons | 27c | 367.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Spirit | 71c | 269.89$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…52b1backed Team Falcons | 36c | 265.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Team Spirit | 50c | 176.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…8c55backed Team Falcons | 35c | 136.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed Team Spirit | 72c | 135.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Team Spirit | 72c | 122.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Team Spirit | 73c | 111.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Team Spirit | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Team Spirit | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked Team Spirit | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Falcons | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Spirit | 71c | 83.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Team Spirit | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Falcons | 37c | 67.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Team Spirit | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Team Falcons | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Team Spirit | 51c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Team Spirit | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 37.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Team Spirit | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Team Spirit | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Spirit | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Team Spirit | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Team Spirit | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Team Spirit | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Team Spirit | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Team Spirit | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Team Spirit | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.