TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,969
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$599,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,969 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons57c63,248$36,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,123.11,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Spirit59c39,209$23,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,921.3271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Spirit56c23,415$13,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,386.0543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Falcons54c19,999$10,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,799.2533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Spirit47c13,071$6,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,972.6342650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…204cbacked Team Spirit44c11,824$5,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,603.694055%22 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons57c9,874$5,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,585.0796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Team Falcons29c9,494$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.421428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit46c9,308$4,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,010.3989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked Team Falcons62c9,031$5,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,630.722850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Team Spirit79c8,637$6,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.9415739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons37c8,050$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.61,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Spirit42c7,164$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.141944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d6a…1c08backed Team Falcons55c7,000$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8703450%17 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Falcons28c6,164$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.5225147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8551…83f6backed Team Spirit37c6,122$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,841.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Falcons53c6,004$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.215544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Spirit46c5,521$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.331,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Team Spirit80c5,177$4,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.636569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Spirit39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,05089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Spirit39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,05029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Spirit45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.922848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Spirit53c4,978$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,354.321,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Spirit54c4,694$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.747046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Spirit52c4,589$2,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.6751751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Team Falcons28c4,448$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.315747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Falcons37c4,073$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.1140051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Team Falcons2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Falcons55c3,799$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.5441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Team Spirit44c3,788$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.3322647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Team Spirit41c3,711$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.6712560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons57c3,599$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.2480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f73…1b52backed Team Spirit38c3,500$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons26c3,438$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.781,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Falcons40c3,388$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.0538855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Spirit48c3,059$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.661,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons52c3,000$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit41c2,893$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,69942145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit42c2,885$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.991,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Team Falcons29c2,740$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.0611836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Spirit44c2,701$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.5527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Team Falcons5c2,691$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14363032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons17c2,487$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.840014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Spirit41c2,260$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.4458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Team Falcons55c2,254$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.5710743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Spirit43c2,160$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Spirit60c2,119$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.7367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Spirit64c2,040$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.3136547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Spirit45c2,035$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.955751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Spirit39c2,001$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.4229143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Spirit38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Falcons11c1,971$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.041,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Falcons55c1,946$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.333549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Team Spirit39c1,921$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.638042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit78c1,919$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.1435758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Spirit50c1,917$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.2355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Team Falcons5c1,892$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.311359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit45c1,847$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.5285851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Spirit49c1,783$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.8427143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons55c1,681$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.8999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team Spirit46c1,592$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.0630336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Falcons54c1,574$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9641351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Spirit43c1,574$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.5843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed Team Spirit53c1,534$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.887859%46 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit61c1,508$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.5579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Spirit51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73538049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Spirit75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37523650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Team Falcons55c1,495$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.0313228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Spirit69c1,487$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.9839660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Team Falcons41c1,401$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.6610262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Team Spirit56c1,393$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.4913157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Team Falcons23c1,336$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5711450.9%58 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Falcons53c1,250$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.519742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked Team Spirit72c1,213$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.532055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team Falcons54c1,209$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.9625248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45dd…c32ebacked Team Falcons2c1,177$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.534740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb14a…4254backed Team Spirit41c1,176$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.041361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Falcons51c1,176$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.3335951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab2…b321backed Team Spirit40c1,157$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team Spirit45c1,053$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.567742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Spirit45c1,048$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.2937945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit61c1,046$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.2648954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf117…c44ebacked Team Spirit67c1,025$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.923740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons60c1,019$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.7756852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons45c1,000$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.744149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Team Falcons38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38013068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team Falcons52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52033541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d3…cdacbacked Team Spirit38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6206631.8%21 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons29c998.08$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons53c995.72$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.7536343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Falcons63c933.3$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.5518356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Team Falcons27c921.9$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25124636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons6c910.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.737811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Spirit45c896.53$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.0626843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Falcons35c861.71$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2751364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Falcons39c846.51$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.1460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit39c846.3$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.632,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Team Falcons47c843.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4617248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit56c832.94$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.0656548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.