TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Spirit, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$488,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Spirit41c128,264$52,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,627.9228748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons59c124,914$73,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,221.811,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons60c22,028$13,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,830.7671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Team Spirit42c21,791$9,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,152.0212560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Falcons58c19,907$11,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,360.7440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8551…83f6backed Team Spirit42c13,539$5,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,686.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…204cbacked Team Falcons59c13,332$7,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,532.784055%22 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons60c10,782$6,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,349.8996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Spirit40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.9822954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Spirit42c9,440$3,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,964.9527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Team Falcons63c8,693$5,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,188.0813068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Team Spirit42c7,599$3,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.391428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Spirit41c7,224$2,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.0329143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Spirit42c6,021$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.915544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Spirit42c5,154$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.759153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Falcons58c5,042$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.6739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Falcons58c4,874$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.0829042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit17c4,835$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.551,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Spirit41c4,712$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.8156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons59c4,584$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Team Falcons59c4,573$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.858042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons61c4,084$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.2551751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f73…1b52backed Team Spirit40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team Spirit42c3,926$1,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.125248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Team Spirit1c3,847$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.475034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Team Falcons72c3,436$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.076569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Falcons57c3,301$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.417651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Spirit1c3,150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.529047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit40c3,087$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.352,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Spirit42c2,969$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.0329348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Spirit42c2,896$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.1515848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons59c2,653$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.756852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Falcons58c2,525$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.525147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Team Falcons73c2,403$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.3710262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit32c2,352$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.751,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Falcons60c2,334$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.0514443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Falcons58c2,239$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.4126843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Spirit41c2,198$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.1841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons70c2,116$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.7779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Spirit21c2,021$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.5467043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Spirit41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Team Spirit40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Falcons59c1,951$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.8333549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Spirit43c1,942$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.8941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Spirit42c1,930$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.7719742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Spirit23c1,917$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.0147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Team Spirit10c1,895$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.29630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Spirit42c1,858$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.5534544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons77c1,792$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.6545046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons61c1,702$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.8199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Team Falcons59c1,658$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.859657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons73c1,617$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.8130155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons57c1,600$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68160552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Spirit43c1,449$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.9449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit41c1,447$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.2342145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b3…f473backed Team Falcons67c1,349$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.331560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Team Falcons75c1,216$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.246349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Team Falcons58c1,185$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.6713228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed Team Falcons60c1,076$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.157859%46 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons58c1,072$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.361,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Spirit9c1,016$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3925935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Spirit40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Team Spirit42c982.28$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.5633541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Spirit16c975.3$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6938855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Spirit10c967.62$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5918356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Falcons61c960.59$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.6361745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Spirit10c910.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9740014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Team Spirit40c846.29$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.3914251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Team Falcons59c833.72$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3409858.2%57 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Team Spirit35c824.81$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2611450.9%58 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Falcons59c823.52$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.6424251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Falcons61c817.35$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7434443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed Team Falcons60c813.33$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.3310546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked Team Falcons59c777.46$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.766949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Spirit10c772.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.121,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb05…ed70backed Team Spirit43c772.64$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.244856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Team Falcons58c766$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.517248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Team Falcons64c764.38$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.1848843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Team Falcons60c756.21$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.7360660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Spirit35c746.51$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.7696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team Falcons58c699.98$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.9918550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit24c646.85$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.932,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…6065backed Team Spirit42c633.42$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.044440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Falcons60c585.42$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0933644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Team Spirit43c533.46$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3910751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons59c524$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons57c523.8$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2322848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Team Falcons59c495.97$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3517954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons80c495.33$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0235370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Team Falcons73c491.84$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7418156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Team Falcons59c487.7$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.961553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d1…b52bbacked Team Falcons59c487.7$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.962250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Team Falcons61c481.59$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8237549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Team Spirit43c480.65$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6811154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Team Spirit10c474.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.330534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Team Spirit28c474$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.611131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons64c465.72$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.6650749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Spirit42c457.5$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1535951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.