Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa586a4bfd64a870b7b527d9b44ceba334174c7cfeb83ea50d053fcb5134bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Sabalenka, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cb…d211backed Sabalenka | 65c | 3,600$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.97 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Osaka | 35c | 1,796$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.99 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Osaka | 38c | 445.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.11 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Osaka | 35c | 372.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.21 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Sabalenka | 36c | 263.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -13.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Osaka | 35c | 251.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Sabalenka | 57c | 210.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Osaka | 19c | 205.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Osaka | 35c | 148.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Osaka | 35c | 137.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Osaka | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Sabalenka | 53c | 108.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Osaka | 38c | 100.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Sabalenka | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Osaka | 22c | 87.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…a1c1backed Osaka | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 226 | 42%95 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Osaka | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4833…17d5backed Osaka | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Osaka | 40c | 64.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Sabalenka | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Osaka | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…b4aebacked Osaka | 29c | 50.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Osaka | 50c | 42.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Osaka | 25c | 40.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…6884backed Osaka | 41c | 30.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Sabalenka | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 306 | 53.3%163 W · 143 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Osaka | 51c | 25.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sabalenka | 57c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osakathis page
- Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.