Tennis · resolved market
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ffd72576c8f9bfb18bf3da4d962c72f12e0c0c163e7f8ce99f188e9752a46e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Naomi Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,524,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,775,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,524,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 660 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Naomi Osaka | 31c | 120,400$37,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,038.42 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Naomi Osaka | 21c | 69,650$14,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,887.18 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked Naomi Osaka | 28c | 59,051$16,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,425.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Naomi Osaka | 33c | 58,699$19,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,164.55 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Naomi Osaka | 33c | 57,854$19,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,242.27 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Aryna Sabalenka | 80c | 56,473$45,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,410.91 | 341 | 36.4%124 W · 217 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Naomi Osaka | 14c | 50,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.96 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Naomi Osaka | 51c | 46,894$23,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,884.29 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Naomi Osaka | 30c | 45,657$13,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,669.73 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…a3e3backed Aryna Sabalenka | 70c | 38,760$27,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,470.82 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…96babacked Aryna Sabalenka | 79c | 24,641$19,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,174.66 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Aryna Sabalenka | 60c | 20,372$12,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,047.33 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Naomi Osaka | 33c | 16,160$5,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,356.35 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…fe01backed Aryna Sabalenka | 56c | 15,787$8,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,999.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Naomi Osaka | 34c | 14,639$4,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,904.24 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Aryna Sabalenka | 75c | 13,133$9,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.33 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Naomi Osaka | 33c | 12,516$4,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.84 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Aryna Sabalenka | 78c | 11,874$9,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.99 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | -27.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…26e8backed Aryna Sabalenka | 76c | 11,681$8,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…cb1abacked Aryna Sabalenka | 61c | 11,038$6,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,299.41 | 300 | 56.7%170 W · 130 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Aryna Sabalenka | 70c | 10,643$7,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.44 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 54c | 10,333$5,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,725.78 | 292 | 41.8%122 W · 170 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Naomi Osaka | 40c | 10,028$3,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997.73 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Naomi Osaka | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 647 | 55.2%357 W · 290 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Naomi Osaka | 15c | 9,515$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d93…2cf1backed Naomi Osaka | 41c | 6,958$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.42 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Aryna Sabalenka | 72c | 6,593$4,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.56 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…3c92backed Aryna Sabalenka | 75c | 6,394$4,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.39 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Naomi Osaka | 25c | 6,389$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.63 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbf…d37fbacked Naomi Osaka | 38c | 5,352$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.76 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Aryna Sabalenka | 60c | 4,973$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.14 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Aryna Sabalenka | 80c | 4,887$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.12 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 62c | 4,886$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.68 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…762abacked Naomi Osaka | 34c | 4,860$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.95 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Aryna Sabalenka | 62c | 4,728$2,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.79 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | -12.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Aryna Sabalenka | 73c | 4,717$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.55 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 74c | 4,522$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.22 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Naomi Osaka | 14c | 4,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.98 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…e4d1backed Aryna Sabalenka | 70c | 4,417$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Aryna Sabalenka | 59c | 4,365$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.19 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…3f23backed Aryna Sabalenka | 67c | 4,253$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 65c | 4,225$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.32 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ca12backed Aryna Sabalenka | 54c | 4,141$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.37 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Naomi Osaka | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.98 | 453 | 43.9%199 W · 254 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Naomi Osaka | 21c | 3,912$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.43 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…1702backed Naomi Osaka | 29c | 3,902$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.39 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Naomi Osaka | 47c | 3,890$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.74 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Naomi Osaka | 23c | 3,870$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.83 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e5…905bbacked Naomi Osaka | 24c | 3,858$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Naomi Osaka | 34c | 3,784$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.19 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Aryna Sabalenka | 64c | 3,698$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.8 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b52…568ebacked Aryna Sabalenka | 79c | 3,697$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.69 | 204 | 59.3%121 W · 83 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…ff11backed Naomi Osaka | 27c | 3,576$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.04 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…ce7abacked Aryna Sabalenka | 65c | 3,541$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.24 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Naomi Osaka | 5c | 3,466$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.37 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Aryna Sabalenka | 76c | 3,390$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.18 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Naomi Osaka | 27c | 3,369$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Naomi Osaka | 26c | 3,176$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.74 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Aryna Sabalenka | 69c | 3,121$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.24 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Aryna Sabalenka | 72c | 3,110$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…ea27backed Aryna Sabalenka | 74c | 3,060$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.55 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…d7a5backed Aryna Sabalenka | 73c | 3,011$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.22 | 536 | 55.4%297 W · 239 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Aryna Sabalenka | 59c | 2,998$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.74 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aryna Sabalenka | 78c | 2,910$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Aryna Sabalenka | 63c | 2,793$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.07 | 853 | 48.7%415 W · 438 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Naomi Osaka | 42c | 2,777$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Aryna Sabalenka | 57c | 2,776$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.59 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373d…303fbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 55c | 2,718$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Aryna Sabalenka | 57c | 2,471$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Naomi Osaka | 22c | 2,422$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.94 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aryna Sabalenka | 72c | 2,377$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.32 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Naomi Osaka | 38c | 2,349$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.93 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…ee5fbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 77c | 2,309$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.48 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Naomi Osaka | 41c | 2,226$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.53 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 69c | 2,164$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.28 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed Naomi Osaka | 26c | 2,103$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.89 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Aryna Sabalenka | 56c | 2,086$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.97 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Naomi Osaka | 43c | 2,084$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.1 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…98b1backed Naomi Osaka | 1c | 2,016$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 226 | 2.2%5 W · 221 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Naomi Osaka | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…99a8backed Aryna Sabalenka | 62c | 1,970$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…b0eabacked Aryna Sabalenka | 60c | 1,934$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.56 | 394 | 38.1%150 W · 244 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Naomi Osaka | 12c | 1,927$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…7bdabacked Aryna Sabalenka | 53c | 1,876$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.71 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f9…feafbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 53c | 1,846$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Aryna Sabalenka | 54c | 1,801$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.34 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…8117backed Aryna Sabalenka | 79c | 1,679$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Aryna Sabalenka | 60c | 1,616$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.76 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Naomi Osaka | 40c | 1,607$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.94 | 274 | 31.8%87 W · 187 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Naomi Osaka | 52c | 1,602$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.74 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Naomi Osaka | 32c | 1,536$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.32 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Aryna Sabalenka | 68c | 1,506$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.58 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Aryna Sabalenka | 66c | 1,480$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.34 | 1,026 | 50%513 W · 513 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bc…5899backed Aryna Sabalenka | 67c | 1,462$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.46 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Naomi Osaka | 24c | 1,379$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.9 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…cb3fbacked Naomi Osaka | 39c | 1,236$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…7d88backed Naomi Osaka | 39c | 1,231$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.73 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Naomi Osaka | 16c | 1,209$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Naomi Osaka | 18c | 1,194$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aryna Sabalenka | 76c | 1,188$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.77 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osakathis page
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.