Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fce040340cf93090c17cbe9840706339211590be9ec6b7865f2cba58b519177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 67c | 402.72$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.82 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 259.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 249.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 220.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 220$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 152.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 134.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 38c | 133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked No | 76c | 128.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 33c | 117.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 30c | 93.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 83.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 79.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 74.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 33c | 66.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 70c | 64.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 63.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 28c | 57.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 68c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 41.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 40.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…44e1backed Yes | 31c | 38.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 33c | 37.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 32.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 68c | 30.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 62c | 28.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 23.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 62c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9a…966dbacked No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.