TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,470 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Kansas City Royals61c1,518$926 inWon+$591.922548%12 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Minnesota Twins39c1,500$585 inLost-$58567250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Minnesota Twins12c984.96$117 inLost-$116.8188053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Minnesota Twins38c248.99$95 inLost-$94.6212552%65 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Kansas City Royals62c197.7$123 inWon+$75.1660350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Kansas City Royals61c195.32$119 inWon+$76.1759150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals67c151.52$102 inWon+$505,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins39c149.16$58 inLost-$58.175,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Minnesota Twins33c145.42$48 inLost-$47.9919540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins39c100$39 inLost-$392,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6c…e9a0backed Minnesota Twins40c72.3$29 inLost-$28.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ecf…9148backed Minnesota Twins40c72.3$29 inLost-$28.921346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6caa…4fb3backed Minnesota Twins40c72.3$29 inLost-$28.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Minnesota Twins42c56.23$24 inLost-$23.6223248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Kansas City Royals61c48.03$29 inWon+$18.7356946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf20…5be2backed Minnesota Twins40c36.15$14 inLost-$14.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…be97backed Kansas City Royals62c27.64$17 inWon+$10.53145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Kansas City Royals61c25.62$16 inWon+$9.9921656%121 W · 95 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.