MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ceea03d76fade0eb6aae457f804fd9dcdb2add0e0b10eed5cbd38241fd90da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked No | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 43c | 1,889$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.74 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes | 51c | 1,760$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Yes | 58c | 1,121$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.24 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 55c | 440.5$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 52c | 400.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 47c | 387.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.57 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 51c | 353.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 51c | 309.62$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked No | 48c | 304.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked No | 48c | 300.34$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Yes | 55c | 284.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 51c | 218.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Yes | 55c | 212.29$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 58c | 92.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Yes | 55c | 79.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Yes | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 51c | 71.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed No | 47c | 54.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 53c | 47.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 51c | 32.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef4…e208backed No | 47c | 30.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 57c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…7cbabacked Yes | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 18.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.