Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe05043d0923dad4c5a3dd17673c649efae1560d8bdfa0106749bd92c65c1a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,173$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 77c | 1,662$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.25 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f196backed Over | 76c | 426.96$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6b…345dbacked Under | 24c | 426.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 72c | 347$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 55c | 341.8$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 23c | 259.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 64c | 197.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…8670backed Over | 76c | 180.44$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…25cabacked Under | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da8…0cc3backed Over | 76c | 161.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…f8edbacked Under | 24c | 161.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 51c | 136$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 112.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Under | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 23c | 64.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c38…13b1backed Over | 77c | 49.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 25c | 48.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…a834backed Over | 60c | 44.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 77c | 44.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Over | 78c | 42.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 32.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.