Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd632ca49dc7beca31c91baa67dea05ecc8e922b7453ae049a1d5aa9c9f7ff973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,219 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 53c | 7,775$4,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,120.66 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 5,233$2,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.71 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 47c | 2,964$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 2,619$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.85 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 2,506$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 1,823$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 1,626$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.48 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 1,090$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.2 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 31c | 847.77$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 830.94$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 69c | 652.17$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 59c | 604.59$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 65c | 586$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 517$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…e6c2backed Over | 68c | 497.13$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 54c | 392.57$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…2774backed Under | 60c | 308.33$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 33c | 302.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 234.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 187.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c38…13b1backed Over | 32c | 186.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 171.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 44c | 158.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4698backed Over | 64c | 138.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 53c | 133.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 125.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 40c | 121$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 68c | 93.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 93.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 52c | 93.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 38c | 90.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 66c | 84.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 83.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 32c | 73.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…800bbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 53.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 70c | 32.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 29.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 70c | 24.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 42c | 23.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 66c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 67c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 69c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 69c | 16.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.