CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe55f197d0935c0811d1f9288ee95dbac14600b158376828c81b9b59a081e92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof Ursa, Eternal Fire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 36c | 361.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ursa | 41c | 309.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Eternal Fire | 58c | 172.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Eternal Fire | 70c | 143.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 218 | 67%146 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Eternal Fire | 54c | 118.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Eternal Fire | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Eternal Fire | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Eternal Fire | 65c | 54.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Eternal Fire | 65c | 46.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…8ef9backed Ursa | 65c | 46.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Eternal Fire | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed Ursa | 45c | 38.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…d7f4backed Eternal Fire | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…ec13backed Eternal Fire | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.