Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ffbab20c377b1de8515535bc7fabfd978dad589c265b47aa091ed97fdb6a47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,550 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 308.83$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…4700backed Under | 68c | 147.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 71c | 133$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 42c | 114$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 42c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 42c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 29c | 93.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 78.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Under | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 38.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9b…4bf6backed Over | 60c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.