Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x401acc3863e80b427039bd9b015f46b220eda15a8deeb00c34460fd22b869b05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 49c | 32,417$16,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,408.39 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 22,500$11,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,375 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 51c | 7,719$3,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,814.08 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 6,103$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.94 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 3,208$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.97 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 2,725$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.48 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 1,670$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.29 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 1,498$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.93 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 51c | 750.14$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.57 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Over | 51c | 390.71$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 49c | 303.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 212$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Under | 48c | 211$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Over | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Over | 51c | 50.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 51c | 48.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 51c | 38.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 52c | 34.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 30.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Under | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…677abacked Over | 54c | 27.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 44c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 174.5this page
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 173.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.