Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs. Team Tidebound
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4023059502f4abf7a24c193dd51610719c89f13f9c22f9ddc93d99aaa68a3322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Tideboundof Team Liquid, Team Tidebound
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Team Tidebound | 43c | 4,438$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.71 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 1,902$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.48 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Team Liquid | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6431…3542backed Team Tidebound | 76c | 538.99$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Team Liquid | 60c | 329$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.02 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Liquid | 45c | 316.6$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Tidebound | 53c | 288.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Liquid | 24c | 257.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Team Liquid | 49c | 222.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…b0f3backed Team Tidebound | 65c | 153.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Team Liquid | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Team Liquid | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Team Liquid | 67c | 37.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed Team Liquid | 45c | 31.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Team Liquid | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…68bebacked Team Liquid | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed58…81f3backed Team Liquid | 65c | 18.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.