Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4033f98923365ac0fab1ed816d89267e297bb8aa6a41c791350c480dc3a8d91c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trace Esportsof All Gamers, Trace Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…2759backed Trace Esports | 53c | 1,013$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.25 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed All Gamers | 48c | 931.55$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.14 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Trace Esports | 54c | 599.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Trace Esports | 52c | 570.1$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.65 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…525fbacked All Gamers | 44c | 432.83$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.67 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…d1f4backed Trace Esports | 52c | 369.24$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…1222backed All Gamers | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +7.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…56a1backed All Gamers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Trace Esports | 54c | 209$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 634 | 47.9%304 W · 330 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked All Gamers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…fe08backed Trace Esports | 53c | 188.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Trace Esports | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 258 | 43%111 W · 147 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed All Gamers | 46c | 143.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked All Gamers | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…cd25backed All Gamers | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Trace Esports | 53c | 116.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed All Gamers | 48c | 110.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6109…0baabacked All Gamers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked All Gamers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…2d1dbacked All Gamers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked All Gamers | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Trace Esports | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed All Gamers | 46c | 88.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Trace Esports | 55c | 88.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed All Gamers | 47c | 85.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e9…39a0backed All Gamers | 48c | 83.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed All Gamers | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed All Gamers | 46c | 64.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 361 | 45.7%165 W · 196 L | +22.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Trace Esports | 56c | 60.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Trace Esports | 62c | 60.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 492 | 55.3%272 W · 220 L | +23.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b6…d353backed All Gamers | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Trace Esports | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 184 | 65.2%120 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…59d9backed All Gamers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Trace Esports | 69c | 41.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed All Gamers | 47c | 40.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Trace Esports | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Trace Esports | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Trace Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs Trace Esports (+2.5)All Gamers won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-InsAll Gamers won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs Trace Esports - Map 1 WinnerTrace Esports won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs Trace Esports - Map 2 WinnerAll Gamers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.