NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Avangard Omsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404a7108490dfcc93aa2ab283ed816682ffcda9959dcc723a78a90ca491f9ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Avangard Omsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Avangard Omsk | 76c | 1,317$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…0c97backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 918$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…75f2backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 879$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…774fbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 720$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 28c | 662.35$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.89 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…c8acbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 618$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb20…013ebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 532$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…0996backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 486$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7a…b288backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 480$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…c3c1backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 432$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461e…f3e3backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 416$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…aeb5backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 399$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d2…2e42backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 29c | 383$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…83cbbacked Avangard Omsk | 71c | 333$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 32c | 309.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…4657backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 304$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…e999backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 294$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…26f9backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 285$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 272$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…8420backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 238$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…df9abacked Avangard Omsk | 71c | 206$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 197.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…7cefbacked Avangard Omsk | 71c | 177$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 13c | 132.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…73c7backed Avangard Omsk | 74c | 131.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Avangard Omsk | 74c | 98.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Avangard Omsk | 75c | 83.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 28c | 71.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 33c | 60.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Avangard Omsk | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Avangard Omsk | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Avangard Omsk | 72c | 47.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 44.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 78c | 36.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Avangard Omsk | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Avangard Omsk | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…1d4abacked Avangard Omsk | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52b…a76fbacked Avangard Omsk | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3b16backed Avangard Omsk | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.