Tennis · resolved market
National Bank Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana Arseneault
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404c103314f850b0a28c9af88332ca09d8c02093c75f995587585565f8a3bde8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jessica Bouzas Maneiroof Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Ariana Arseneault
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d6d…2654backed Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 12,044$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.52 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Ariana Arseneault | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,437 | 28.5%409 W · 1,028 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Ariana Arseneault | 14c | 2,477$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.61 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b26ebacked Ariana Arseneault | 5c | 1,896$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ariana Arseneault | 9c | 1,305$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ariana Arseneault | 6c | 834.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 668.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 415 | 35.4%147 W · 268 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ariana Arseneault | 11c | 599.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 523.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Ariana Arseneault | 11c | 518.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 189 | 29.6%56 W · 133 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ariana Arseneault | 11c | 474.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Ariana Arseneault | 3c | 448.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,207 | 8%96 W · 1,111 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ariana Arseneault | 6c | 443.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 399.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 368 | 38.3%141 W · 227 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Ariana Arseneault | 8c | 319.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Ariana Arseneault | 7c | 273.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 759 | 12.1%92 W · 667 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Ariana Arseneault | 6c | 252.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 209.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 193 | 39.4%76 W · 117 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Ariana Arseneault | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…6e6fbacked Ariana Arseneault | 11c | 112.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Ariana Arseneault | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 954 | 45.5%434 W · 520 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Ariana Arseneault | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- National Bank Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana Arseneaultthis page
- Set Handicap: Maneiro (-1.5) vs Arseneault (+1.5)Maneiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.