Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4082b2f1a8a7138499120a4cbfad9850a622fdbd959353e3fafae1f467c2df00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 5c | 611.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 299.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 59c | 289.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 194.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 167.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 154.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 125.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 42c | 123.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 41c | 115.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 76.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 75.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 73.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 68.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 77c | 63.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 41c | 62.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 45c | 61.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 59.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 74c | 58.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 21c | 50.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 37.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 32.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 32.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 23.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.