La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4091b328e3d7eb8d3193002e1d1abbe7dd615a782e246dc3fb09b0f3d6c52858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 8,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,679.96 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 46c | 6,629$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.99 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 55c | 2,913$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.7 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 2,593$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.55 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 1,835$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.18 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 46c | 347.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 205.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 84.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 55c | 72.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 54c | 41.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe589…d2fcbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Under | 46c | 28.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…2cfbbacked Under | 47c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 54c | 24.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5this page
- UD Almería vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.