TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Texas State Bobcats

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas State Bobcatsof Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, Texas State Bobcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,925 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d94…9100backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks10c3,310$326 inLost-$325.562,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f0…25aebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks10c1,956$196 inLost-$195.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks6c1,792$100 inLost-$99.611,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks17c1,150$200 inLost-$20012230.3%37 W · 85 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks16c750$121 inLost-$12112617.5%22 W · 104 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks10c750$75 inLost-$7556444.1%249 W · 315 L+2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks15c577.1$87 inLost-$86.571,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks5c530.51$27 inLost-$26.572,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4336…28a7backed Texas State Bobcats79c495.38$390 inWon+$104.9713464.2%86 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks11c415$46 inLost-$45.6599045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks15c400$62 inLost-$61.8749747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks9c335.95$32 inLost-$31.911,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks8c328.31$25 inLost-$24.861,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks13c319.97$43 inLost-$42.7371655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks11c205.9$23 inLost-$22.854,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks9c200$18 inLost-$182,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks20c137$27 inLost-$27.41238.1%10 W · 113 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks9c112$10 inLost-$10.0825230.6%77 W · 175 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0b…44fdbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks10c101$10 inLost-$103231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks10c100$10 inLost-$101,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks33c48.38$16 inLost-$15.9722730.4%69 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.