Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40af81f820682c7d7332f0c25d091a0f36b8f90a4481d073e79de43fd4cc8865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,021 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 1c | 16,343$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…c651backed Yes | 28c | 2,717$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…e350backed Yes | 28c | 2,564$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…53e1backed No | 72c | 1,362$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…0887backed No | 72c | 1,355$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…5218backed No | 72c | 1,300$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…c485backed No | 72c | 1,264$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…4cd5backed Yes | 3c | 621.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 278.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 30c | 193.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 12c | 133.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 128.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 121.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 101.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 98.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 93.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 17c | 86.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 81.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 73.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 71.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 71.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 66.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 68c | 66.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…6b53backed Yes | 30c | 52.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 32c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 74c | 42.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed No | 70c | 41.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes | 28c | 41.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 38c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 44c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 31c | 31.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…c79dbacked Yes | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 73c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 26.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 75c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 65c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.