Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79fdc90d5b79fae94497606af1fe190adaf73d40af0e0875a346cd6fec2d9143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,725 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 4c | 1,237$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…c9e9backed Yes | 2c | 939.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 608.56$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 50c | 391.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 335.38$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 45c | 320.34$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 55c | 225.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 184.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 50c | 181.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 64c | 160.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 157.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 47c | 136.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 34c | 134.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…7df7backed Yes | 51c | 122.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 115.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 104.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 102.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…8da5backed Yes | 60c | 102.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 95.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 53c | 92.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 85.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 69.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…2987backed No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…c66dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…0efebacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 53.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 38c | 52.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 50.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 48c | 48.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 57c | 43.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…683fbacked Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ac…828bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 41c | 29.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 61c | 29.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 29.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…1c76backed Yes | 49c | 28.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 42c | 28.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes | 44c | 25.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 65c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked No | 71c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…a8fcbacked No | 71c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.