NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40baef3486410073804857d2a805c5e0705850a8234b143a64727081ee16ea7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Stars, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454f…04e7backed Stars | 40c | 4,631$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Sharks | 60c | 4,631$2,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 39c | 3,103$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.1 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sharks | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Sharks | 60c | 1,357$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.46 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 61c | 1,330$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.88 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Sharks | 61c | 1,030$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.7 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Stars | 40c | 657$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.93 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Stars | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Stars | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Stars | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Stars | 42c | 334.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sharks | 58c | 313.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Stars | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Sharks | 61c | 226.11$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Stars | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stars | 39c | 126.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Stars | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sharks | 42c | 61.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Stars | 38c | 52.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Sharks | 61c | 41.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 653 | 45%294 W · 359 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Sharks | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sharks | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Sharks | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Sharks | 61c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Sharks | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Sharks | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. SharksSharks won
- Stars vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.