Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40eef38422bb3f69d9055e45b93e4121ee3baead558198eeed157801922d578d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9671…3a70backed Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 1,550$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.66 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 1,126$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.28 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Liquid | 43c | 1,100$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.05 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Team Liquid | 62c | 976.92$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.23 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 65c | 688.58$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.49 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 631.58$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.07 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 487.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 150.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Nigma Galaxy | 15c | 147.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 119.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…b8f7backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 112.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…9fcdbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Liquid | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Team Liquid | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…3b3dbacked Team Liquid | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…240abacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 48.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…da08backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…3be3backed Team Liquid | 52c | 40.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 35.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 35.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Team Liquid | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…a9e8backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Liquid | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.