Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4d0d62c9aee78aef7634d1c2388c0a0fb43861eb56138b8a00c4b22f1d7ee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 7,480$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Team Liquid | 65c | 3,780$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.9 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 63c | 1,604$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.11 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…3be3backed Team Liquid | 69c | 1,500$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Liquid | 70c | 591$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Liquid | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Liquid | 79c | 225.22$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid | 69c | 215.59$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 42c | 208.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 155$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 154.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed Team Liquid | 78c | 118.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…d596backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Team Liquid | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Team Liquid | 71c | 100.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Team Liquid | 79c | 91.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 72.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 65.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 58.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Team Liquid | 78c | 53.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Team Liquid | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Liquid | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Liquid | 78c | 44.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 38.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Liquid | 74c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Liquid | 72c | 32.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Team Liquid | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Liquid | 75c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.