Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe18d36e11d38611db5d6fb71ff24b83e875edfb35dc4857c3dceb58b8b478a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc5…3be3backed Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 1c | 4,319$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 1,400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 1,034$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 832.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid | 50c | 697.93$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.97 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 556.44$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.77 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Team Liquid | 68c | 291.32$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 277.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…9ae8backed Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 169.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Liquid | 59c | 168.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…d596backed Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 148.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 113.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…240abacked Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 105.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 92.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 81.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 76.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 76.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Team Liquid | 79c | 73.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…c013backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 61.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 61.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Team Liquid | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1e…66f1backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Team Liquid | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Team Liquid | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…552fbacked Team Liquid | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Team Liquid | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.