Tennis · resolved market
ITF W35 Krakow Women: Miriana Tona vs Ariana Geerlings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f3ad6bde058730b2d6c14e7a0e5d5c8e6f15d62843b032879d8817313fa7c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ariana Geerlingsof Miriana Tona, Ariana Geerlings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ca0…4b69backed Ariana Geerlings | 77c | 773.26$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miriana Tona | 27c | 589$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Miriana Tona | 20c | 537.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Miriana Tona | 21c | 314.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 195 | 40.5%79 W · 116 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Miriana Tona | 17c | 261.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Miriana Tona | 23c | 188.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miriana Tona | 24c | 173.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Miriana Tona | 15c | 162.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miriana Tona | 24c | 129.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Miriana Tona | 16c | 70.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Miriana Tona | 16c | 68.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ariana Geerlings | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7719backed Ariana Geerlings | 80c | 35.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ariana Geerlings | 74c | 33.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Ariana Geerlings | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Ariana Geerlings | 77c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de5…06bdbacked Ariana Geerlings | 80c | 21.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Ariana Geerlings | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…e94abacked Ariana Geerlings | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Ariana Geerlings | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -17.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.