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Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Ruudof Ruud, Lehecka
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,273 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc521…b46abacked Ruud42c594.72$250 inWon+$344.7225644.5%114 W · 142 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Ruud41c584.36$237 inWon+$347.12,16054%1,166 W · 994 L-5.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Ruud39c500$195 inWon+$30525940.9%106 W · 153 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeca…41f0backed Lehecka62c450.56$279 inLost-$278.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Lehecka61c404$246 inLost-$246.449246.7%43 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Lehecka58c386.65$225 inLost-$225.267,22749.7%3,591 W · 3,636 L+118.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lehecka58c272.02$158 inLost-$157.827,79147.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L+39.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe877…57d5backed Lehecka63c192.19$122 inLost-$122616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Lehecka60c170$102 inLost-$10243143.6%188 W · 243 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084d…7e47backed Lehecka62c161.29$100 inLost-$1009848%47 W · 51 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Lehecka63c158.76$100 inLost-$10031048.7%151 W · 159 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Ruud37c129.49$48 inWon+$81.584,09839.8%1,631 W · 2,467 L+95.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x811c…fd36backed Lehecka62c101.69$63 inLost-$6315655.8%87 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Ruud38c100$38 inWon+$621,52237.8%576 W · 946 L+26.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Ruud39c100$39 inWon+$61.52450%12 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ada…36cfbacked Ruud38c98.99$38 inWon+$61.372030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+86.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Lehecka58c89.28$52 inLost-$51.781,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Lehecka61c87$53 inLost-$53.075743.9%25 W · 32 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Ruud37c80.65$30 inWon+$50.572,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Ruud38c75$29 inWon+$46.51,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Ruud38c59.99$23 inWon+$379244.6%41 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Ruud38c53$20 inWon+$32.8681047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Ruud39c51.02$20 inWon+$31.021,13642.9%487 W · 649 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Lehecka60c50$30 inLost-$307546.7%35 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Ruud40c49.51$20 inWon+$29.712,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Lehecka59c20$12 inLost-$11.893557.3%536 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.