NHL · resolved market
AHL: Cleveland Monsters vs. Belleville Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411e109c6004b3ad3ad669dc6935a20bba9f4ee11d45f6e36651d963dd047d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Monstersof Cleveland Monsters, Belleville Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,406 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Belleville Senators | 46c | 6,068$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.08 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7eeebacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 2,348$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Monsters | 55c | 1,221$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.48 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Belleville Senators | 46c | 592.45$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.45 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Belleville Senators | 46c | 415.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 368.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…a9cabacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 279.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 273.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…4925backed Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 237.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 190.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Cleveland Monsters | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Belleville Senators | 49c | 102.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 91.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Belleville Senators | 47c | 89.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cleveland Monsters | 51c | 75.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Belleville Senators | 46c | 63.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…ebe6backed Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 61.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Cleveland Monsters | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Cleveland Monsters | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Belleville Senators | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Cleveland Monsters | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Cleveland Monsters | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.