NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4133a6e63ae161a0927c04d442e4756d6b090fbf3d8b0a4e2fe8685e37baf6ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Rockets, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Spurs | 54c | 124,720$67,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,544.43 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 46c | 22,034$10,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,205.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 46c | 20,923$9,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,624.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Rockets | 47c | 20,000$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,300 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rockets | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,200 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rockets | 46c | 16,142$7,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,425.32 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rockets | 46c | 13,000$5,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,980 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rockets | 46c | 10,110$4,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650.6 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Rockets | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 49c | 1,000$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets | 46c | 895$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rockets | 47c | 707.7$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Rockets | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Rockets | 46c | 101.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Spurs | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Rockets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)this page
- Rockets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.