Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b5746fdf3d315b4ce9e5bfd7aa70f4a18e6254a763fc5cb517a004f9018553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 69c | 29,361$20,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,139.55 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 31c | 9,851$3,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.84 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 7,475$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 6,104$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 5,793$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 35c | 835$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.25 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 34c | 599.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 31c | 334.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 9c | 299.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 13c | 237.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 221.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 34c | 214.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 170.11$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 27c | 150.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 67c | 143.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 20c | 122.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 35c | 65.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 30c | 41.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 30c | 38.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…99f3backed Yes | 35c | 32.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…50aabacked No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?Yes won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.