Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba4bd7ba929b254ec6817c5c82d937014f96440cc21c4d72b8c27ec98b493fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Yes | 41c | 30,171$12,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,369.17 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed No | 54c | 18,461$9,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,498.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 59c | 8,659$5,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550.21 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Yes | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 53c | 3,852$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.65 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 2,757$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddb…b423backed Yes | 48c | 626$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 16c | 620$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 518.8$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 53c | 497.6$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.87 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 418.5$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 28c | 360$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 67c | 316.51$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 47c | 301$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 49c | 257.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 246.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked No | 54c | 214.59$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +336.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 211.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 185.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 26c | 165.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 30c | 162$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 70c | 155$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 146.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 35c | 125.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 52c | 124.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 38c | 116.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 48c | 113.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 54c | 89.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…846ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 59.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 35c | 57.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 35c | 35.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 21.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…c9d2backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-08?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.