NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c0924d37aeb35920ca4d1678f54adf62091ef2cdf4ecd0b5b14ab8a94a4cb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bills, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Bills | 50c | 6,049$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.72 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bills | 57c | 4,449$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.48 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Bears | 40c | 2,533$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bears | 50c | 2,053$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.52 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Bills | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.85 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Bears | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Bears | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bears | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bills | 55c | 887.92$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.75 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Bears | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bears | 47c | 444$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.84 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Bears | 50c | 383$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…8802backed Bears | 43c | 266.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…4700backed Bills | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Bills | 60c | 133$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…d6e3backed Bears | 47c | 81.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…7982backed Bills | 54c | 76.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…a8a2backed Bears | 47c | 67.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…25b4backed Bears | 47c | 61.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…27fdbacked Bills | 54c | 52.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232b…6600backed Bills | 54c | 45.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Bears | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…9f6dbacked Bills | 54c | 34.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Bills | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Bills | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Bills | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.