Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d00557a0e514dbca3108652a18d4ff59c15a818f482114a98f4a2cd958ed6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 340$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Yes | 7c | 267.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 193.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759a…67ecbacked Yes | 9c | 164.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 150.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 121.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Yes | 10c | 114.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 113.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 108.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 33c | 107.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 105.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 97.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 60c | 90.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 30c | 90.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 64c | 62.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 27c | 55.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 36c | 55.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 37c | 54.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 30c | 52.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 52.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 45c | 51.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 40c | 49.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 48.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 41c | 48.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…9120backed Yes | 33c | 39.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…fadabacked Yes | 38c | 35.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…9728backed No | 62c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 32.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 72c | 28.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 70c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Yes | 37c | 28.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 66c | 27.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 68c | 23.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed Yes | 46c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…5968backed No | 69c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…d6f4backed No | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…adf9backed No | 70c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.