Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b062de83f5e84843e3f121bcc44004a50b8a8088f1b98513521412ceff2d73a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6b2…bab5backed Yes | 3c | 755$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 380.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 16c | 267.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 24c | 264.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 236.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 220.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 201.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…53ebbacked Yes | 21c | 178.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d4…51cbbacked Yes | 32c | 176.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…47afbacked Yes | 18c | 173.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 16c | 167.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bac…dbfbbacked Yes | 21c | 162.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…2871backed Yes | 17c | 161.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 20c | 160.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 25c | 153.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…f999backed Yes | 10c | 139.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…a3c9backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 19c | 128.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…09f3backed Yes | 23c | 128.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 11c | 121.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 117.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 114.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 113.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed Yes | 18c | 113.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 102.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 79c | 89.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 17c | 88.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 18c | 85.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 12c | 83.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Yes | 28c | 67.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d2…a828backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 66c | 59.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…d7b3backed Yes | 20c | 57.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…4572backed Yes | 21c | 57.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 56.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 18c | 56.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 77c | 52.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…20d5backed Yes | 44c | 40.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 36.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…e591backed Yes | 36c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 60c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.