La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e861f97dd0a36dfdc62ae5bb54ee409d265c912a44a29c378dbf3a809472e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 31c | 10,100$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.8 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 66c | 9,238$6,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,078.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 5,799$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.52 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 2,409$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.25 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 1,347$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.98 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 1,218$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.85 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 900.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.23 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 25c | 791.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes | 19c | 620$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.2 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 43c | 405$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 383.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.41 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 78c | 265.6$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 18c | 246.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…c61ebacked No | 27c | 226.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 19c | 176.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 307 | 49.2%151 W · 156 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 26c | 169$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 23c | 167.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed No | 35c | 156.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed No | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 36c | 144.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 21c | 127.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 110.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5d…e3f4backed Yes | 73c | 98.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…5f7cbacked Yes | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 52c | 68.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 37c | 57.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 29c | 55.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 67c | 43.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed Yes | 74c | 34.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…a0c6backed Yes | 69c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…da57backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Real Racing Club vs. Real Zaragoza end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.