Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Noah FA vs. Legia Warszawa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4212564f93d0bec080745c24be6c4e45e4b590f0c9700164bff8403c88e193e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 56c | 620.73$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.87 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 45c | 263.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 221.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 65c | 149.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 32c | 100.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 50c | 30.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah FA vs. Legia Warszawa end in a draw?this page
- Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will Noah FA win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.