Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e62fc4bb55da0651e06eedd15965d6162ea87cc19c65c6b566ff9db53eed111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 41c | 40,000$16,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,400 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 59c | 20,000$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,200 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked No | 59c | 19,433$11,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,967.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 59c | 340$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 37c | 287.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.27 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 50c | 248.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…d84abacked No | 61c | 202.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 59c | 174.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 134.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 61c | 82.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 39c | 52.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 49.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 59c | 39.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 54c | 33.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 59c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 59c | 31.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 35c | 29.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 60c | 16.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Noah FA vs. Legia Warszawa end in a draw?No won
- Will Noah FA win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.