Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Noah FA win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d1ae4ec21a035efa01b742f6dfc02d2dc306d3549e4c2dcd5d0f4f8b9f4b9a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 595.74$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.97 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 68c | 151$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 32c | 72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 25c | 41.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 67c | 23.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3614backed No | 69c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah FA win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will Noah FA vs. Legia Warszawa end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.